Who said doing an MBA can't be fun? Thankfully Universitaca doesn't resemble Malaysia...yet.
Q: Universitaca is a hypothetical country that is experiencing 10% inflation and 7% unemployment. Real GDP growth is at a mere 1% a year. The stock market has crashed. What policies would you propose that the central bank and the government pursue to lower inflation, lower unemployment and speed up GDP growth?
This is tricky because tactics to stop inflation usually run counter to employment. Shock therapy to stop price rises have a tendency to create massive unemployment (e.g. see Jeffrey Sachs' experience in Poland and Bolivia in End of Poverty).
Perhaps the first thing to do is to recognise that these problems cannot be stopped simultaneously. I would propose first tackling the unemployment issue, secondly to handle inflation with the hopeful outcome of speeding up GDP as a result of policies related to the first two issues.
The United States had a similar situation back during the Great Depression (although I don't recall that inflation was the key problem back then). Taking a cue from Roosevelt's New Deal and the whole Keynesian arsenal, I'd first look at beefing up the employment statistics, by:
1. Launching more nationally endorsed and sponsored projects which strengthen the overall economic capability of the country (e.g. building bridges, roads, improving public transportation, dams, power centers, etc.)
2. Start one or two economic development zones which by their mere mention could spur national confidence, with the intention of creating new growth-areas, incubating high-tech research and development centers.
Unfortunately, some form of trade protectionism may be required, esp. if foreign goods are out-competing many of the local producers.
Universitaca needs to ensure, however, that only its infant industries are protected - its mature industries shouldn't fall under this scheme anymore.
3. Curbing the liberalism, corruption, recklessness of banks, the share market, industrialists in the hope of making everyone sing the same tune and returning to strong fundamentals i.e. the products must be of high quality, lending must be only to people with good credit, speculation must stop, cronyism must end.
This deals with the 'fundamentals' of any high-flying economy.
Tackling inflation needs to strike at the heart of the causes of price-rises:
- Is it because supply of essential goods is falling? Then the government must ensure that these normal goods are available in sufficient supply and that all black-markets are cancelled out (esp. those which set artificially high prices). The government needs to also curb all monopolistic practices, especially for industries which are highly inter-linked with other areas (e.g. fuel prices). This is because monopolies can raise prices.
- Is it because of a sudden surge in demand (caused, perhaps, by rising population)? The solution should go hand in hand with those on improving employment, e.g. starting more industries related to housing, food, etc.
The government could then, after a while, take the radical step of putting a price ceiling on some of these normal goods, but ONLY after ensuring that adequate supply is present AND after obtaining the cooperation of the key producers.
In the long-term, though, the govt must ensure that education is of good quality and abundantly available and in the proper disciplines. Coupled with good infrastructure and strong companies - why, there's a perfect soon-to-be First Word nation coming our way.
Posted at 01:01 pm by alwynlau